Insights | U.S.-Philippines military exercises risk 'New Cold War': experts

By Zhang Aolin

(ECNS)-- The United States and the Philippines began their annual "Balikatan" military exercises on May 26, set to run through June 6, following recent "Shoulder-to-Shoulder" drills held in the South China Sea with participation from several extra-regional countries.

The successive U.S.-Philippines joint military exercises with allies have attracted widespread attention. Chen Xiangmiao, director of the World Navy Research Center at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, pointed out in an interview with China News Network that although the scale of "Shoulder-to-Shoulder" military drills was large, the U.S. and the Philippines have their own calculations, and it is actually a mutually exploitative relationship.

Moreover, the involvement of extra-regional countries will also impact the multilateral security order in the region centered on ASEAN and may even increase the risk of a so-called "new cold war".

Three Intentions of the U.S. Military

The U.S. and the Philippines deployed about 14,000 troops in the "Shoulder-to-Shoulder" military exercise, of which about 9,000 were from the U.S. military and 5,000 from the Philippines.

In terms of scale, this is not only the largest annual military drill between the two countries but also one of the largest in the Western Pacific region conducted by the U.S.

Although the U.S. calls it a "comprehensive war test," Chen believes that both sides have their own agenda.

Firstly, the U.S. intends to use the military exercise to display its military deterrence through force. Secondly, it can "unite" extra-regional countries like Japan, Australia, France, Canada, and the United Kingdom into a cooperation framework centered on the U.S.-Philippines relationship.

Chen specifically pointed out that the choice of locations for the exercise was actually aimed at the South China Sea and Taiwan Question.

"So, the U.S. military is actually conducting a premeditated, organized, and well-prepared drill," Chen concluded.

U.S.-Philippines United in Name Only

The Philippines is actually "hiding behind the tiger's skin," in other words, it wants to use the U.S. to support its unilateral actions in the South China Sea, Chen noted.

He added that that the Philippines has taken various forms of unilateral actions in the South China Sea, sometimes to an audacious degree since it believes the U.S. could provide support.

"The Philippine government of Marcos Jr. is trying to use this kind of exercise to confirm whether its "main support object" - the U.S. - can provide a commitment of security protection.

It is also an attempt to provide a legitimate explanation for the Philippines' security strategy, which is closely tied to the U.S.," Chen explained.

However, the U.S. has never given a clear answer on this. "So, I think the joint military exercise between the U.S. and the Philippines is united in name only."

Increase "New Cold War" Risk

Japan, Canada, Australia, France, the United Kingdom, and other "observer countries" also participated in the "Shoulder-to-Shoulder military drills.

Chen believes that the involvement of these extra-regional countries would undoubtedly intensify geopolitical competition in the South China Sea region and encourage the Philippines' unilateral actions at sea.

In his opinion, the U.S. is actually using the exercise to form a small group, which could impact the regional security architecture dominated by ASEAN and cause fragmentation.

"This is where the danger lies. This potential fragmentation will increase the risk of a so-called "new cold war" in the region," concluded Chen.