BRI auto demand elixir for protectionism

Chinese vehicle exports to U.S. minimal, providing level of levy immunity

Chinese vehicles are relatively immune from the United States' tariff impacts due to the limited number of such direct exports to the U.S. and nearly nonexistent sales of domestic brands in that market, said Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association.

Cui highlighted the strong growth potential of Chinese autos in other markets. He stressed the need for Chinese automakers to strengthen partnerships with companies from Belt and Road Initiative-involved regions and southern hemisphere areas.

Specifically, Cui said promoting the use of small-sized electric vehicles in those markets is key to addressing demand for navigating narrow streets due to inadequate infrastructure development in certain regions.

"Currently, China's efforts in advancing the BRI have been fruitful, and there is strong demand for automobiles in these regions. There is substantial potential for gasoline-powered Chinese vehicles by ramping up the export of these products. Promoting plug-in hybrid models will also unlock tremendous opportunities due to cost-effectiveness and energy-efficiency," he said.

Cui, citing data from the General Administration of Customs, said China exported only 116,138 vehicles to the U.S. in 2024, accounting for a mere 1.81 percent of China's total auto exports.

In contrast, the so-called reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. have a more significant impact on European, Japanese and South Korean automakers. Huatai Securities predicts that the 25 percent additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. will affect 20 percent of direct exports from Japan and South Korea, and 30 percent of direct exports from German automakers, translating to an estimated sales impact of approximately 270,000, 200,000, and 160,000 vehicles, respectively, in 2025.

Huatai Securities suggests that the U.S. tariff policies may indirectly promote cooperation between China and other countries and regions, potentially enabling Chinese automotive companies to gain more market share in the EU and Southeast Asia.

As per the Ministry of Commerce, on April 3, both China and Europe agreed to swiftly resume negotiations on price commitments for electric vehicle anti-subsidy cases, fostering a favorable environment for promoting investment and industrial cooperation between Chinese and European enterprises.

"China's global automotive market share is only around 35 percent, with Chinese brand vehicles accounting for less than 28 percent. Chinese brand vehicles have ample room for market share growth in many overseas markets," Cui said.

"With minimal presence in the U.S. automotive market, the trade conflicts have minimal negative impacts on Chinese brand vehicles. There are numerous opportunities for Chinese brands to expand overseas, especially in countries without established automotive industries that welcome our localized products," he said.

Cui highlighted a growing need for Chinese autos from BRI-involved regions. He said accelerating the export of Chinese gas-powered vehicle products and hybrid models holds immense potential.