Insights | U.S. scholar: why Trump's trade wars may not end well

By Wang Gaofei, Zhao Li

(ECNS) -- In recent days, the U.S. government has sparked a global outcry by imposing so-called "reciprocal tariffs” on its trading partners, including China. In an exclusive interview with China News Network, Josef Gregory Mahoney, professor of politics and international relations at East China Normal University, warned that tariffs are a short-term tactic that rarely led to sustainable outcomes.

“History shows that tariffs almost always produce bad results, leading to inflation, unemployment, recessions, and even war,” the professor stated.

Mahoney acknowledged that Trump saw some short-term success during his first term by leveraging tariffs to push countries to give the U.S. more favorable bilateral trade deals. However, the COVID-19 pandemic not only derailed many of these deals, but also created severe setbacks for the United States. “Especially given the unsustainable increases in the deficit that were made as the U.S. tried to spend its way out of the catastrophe,” he added.

The tariff escalation has intensified in recent days. Initially, the U.S. imposed a 20 percent tariff on Chinese goods, followed by a 34 percent increase last week under the new “reciprocal tariff” policy. In response, China imposed the same 34 percent tariff on all U.S. goods. Subsequently, Trump then announced an additional 50 percent tariff on Chinese imports. As of 12:01 a.m. EDT on April 9, the overall tariff rate on Chinese goods entering the U.S. has reached 104 percent.

According to Mahoney, the Trump administration’s intention is clear: to provoke global trade conflicts and force other countries to back down. But so far, the results have backfired. “Trump has launched what many see as a self-defeating global trade war, one that threatens to push the entire world into a recession,” he said.

The resolve shown by China and the European Union appears to have caught Trump off guard. Bond market volatility and some countries dumping U.S. treasuries are “creating the specter of a potentially spectacular failure for the White House,” he said.

Trump has authorized a 90-day tariff pause for countries or regions that do not take measures, in an apparent attempt to isolate and intensify pressure on China.

“Consequently, we're at a sensitive moment, one that could lead directly to Complete the decoupling or even other forms of conflict. It might also lead to negotiations that could resolve it.”

But in this moment, does the rest of the world stand by, do nothing, and thereby help Trump try to break China? Mahoney offered a stark warning: “If they do that, then they'll find themselves facing the devil alone soon enough.”