ADB increases its growth forecast for China to 4.8%

The Asian Development Bank has revised its growth forecast upwards for China to 4.8 percent in 2024, 0.3 percentage points higher than the estimate made in December.

With more proactive fiscal policies in place, the Chinese economy is expected to set on a stable path of growth this year, economists of ADB said in Beijing on Thursday.

Yothin Jinjarak, senior economist at the ADB's resident mission in China, said effectively and strategically targeted government spending could be an untapped potential source that increases the economic activities and boosts the private sector confidence at the same time.

"(We expect) fiscal expansion to further drive investment in manufacturing and infrastructure this year and next year, offsetting the moderation in the real estate investment," said Jinjarak.

Jinjarak anticipated the improvement of China's labor market conditions and household income growth will continue to drive consumption this year.

Besides, endowed with competitive advantages and efficiency, China is expected to witness a strong performance of foreign direct investment in its high-tech sectors. The outbound direct investment from the country could also pick up this year.

Experts from the ADB also expect China to effectively mitigate its property financial risks this year and thereby advance the recovery of the sector in an orderly manner.

"The central authorities have already released a lot of measures to boost the property market including easing the mortgage rates [and] encouraging the second house purchases..." said Wang Yajing, senior economics officer at the ADB's resident mission in China.

Wang said, with China's property market to be further stabilized, it is possible for the GDP growth to turn faster this year. Besides, China currently possesses a relatively healthy financial sector, which means the financial risks related with real estate will not trigger any systematic risks.

Qi Wen, associate economics officer at the ADB's resident mission in China, stressed further efforts to enhance the confidence of the consumers and investors in real estate through measures such as ensuring the timely delivery of the presold housing units.

As for China's economic performance last year, Jinjarak said the spending on services and the investment in manufacturing and infrastructure have served the major drivers of economic growth.

"In the second half of 2023, the data on retail sales and industrial sector value added clearly showed the drive of the demand side growth. While on the supply side the services sectors and high-tech manufacturing expanded and contributed to the economic rebound last year," Jinjarak said.

Their remarks came after the ADB officially released the Asian Development Outlook April 2024 on Thursday.

The ADB forecast that developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region will expand by 4.9 percent on average this year as the region continues its resilient growth amid robust domestic demand, improving semiconductor exports and recovering tourism.