Economy has strong momentum
With its booming real estate market, China's economy grew by 6.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, a slight increase from 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. Multiple economic indexes show that China's economy has strong momentum. Based on its comprehensive analyses of various factors, Deutsche Bank has raised its previous 2017 forecast of China's GDP growth from 6.5 percent to 6.7 percent and also raised its 2018 expectation to 6.3 percent. Deutsche Bank also expects that, due to its slowed credit growth, China's GDP growth may moderately slow in the following three quarters to 6.8 percent, 6.6 percent and 6.5 percent respectively.
Considering that currently China does not face the urgent demand to launch a new round of fiscal stimulus packages, Deutsche Bank believes that the country is unlikely to raise its benchmark interest rates this year, but the possibility for interest rate rises will rise in 2018.
Zhiwei Zhang, an economist with Deutsche Bank
