A revival in Chinese consumption could make up for the cooling effect in the property sector to provide economic growth momentum, while China may witness slower mortgage growth, a leading Chinese investment bank said Wednesday.
While the net impact on economic growth from a slower property market may be negative, as housing-related services and investment activities may cool in the near future, "the negative contribution from slower real estate service growth could be partially compensated by a moderate recovery in discretionary consumption growth," China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC) said in its latest report.
The report came on the heels of a string of measures to rein in speculative housing purchases, contain risks of asset bubbles and stabilize the market, with more than 20 Chinese cities modifying market rules, including higher downpayments and stricter purchase restrictions.
"We have seen an immediate negative impact on property transaction volume in the affected cities" during the Golden Week national holiday ending on October 7, said CICC.
China's housing market started to pick up steam in the second half of 2015 after cooling for more than a year, boosted by interest rate cuts and lower deposits.
The "notable acceleration" in real estate service growth in a large part represented a transfer of wealth allocation, rather than outright economic growth from new production, it stressed.
Without monetary easing in other economic sectors, stricter purchase restrictions and higher mortgage standards may lead to both slower growth in mortgages and slower expansion of M1, a narrow measure of the money supply that covers cash in circulation and demand deposits, CICC predicted.
