Businessmen from Wenzhou, Zhejiang province, among the China's wealthiest and also big-time property investors since 2000, appear to be not unduly excited by signs of incipient recovery in the housing sector in January.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, only 24 out of the 70 medium-sized and large cities surveyed reported month-on-month declines in home prices in January, down from 27 in December.
Put differently, China's housing market continued to grow in January. And, even in the past week, some newly launched properties in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have been sold out shortly after bookings opened.
In January, new-home prices in more than half of the major cities rose month-on-month. That's a throwback to the days when frenzied buying by Wenzhou investors would trigger a surge in new-home prices.
The recovery in prices started in the middle of 2015, after a long period of cooling, as measures like interest rate cuts and lower down payment requirements boosted new-home sales.
But this time round, the wizards of Wenzhou, having learnt some lessons from the last property bubble burst, are cautious－and wiser, prudent. Lazy, if you will, not crazy.
"Wenzhou property investors may not return to the market in a big way any time soon as they are yet to get over their nightmare," said Ding Yi, a developer of luxury homes in Wenzhou.
Gao Lei, owner of a computer company in Wenzhou and a keen property investor in the past, said: "There was a time when every household in Wenzhou owned an average of 1.2 properties in Shanghai. Most of my 30 properties have been sold now. I am not in the game any more as it has turned too risky with unexpected consequences."
Gao used to fly down to different cities every month with other investors to look for better investment opportunities.
Their passion for property started in 2000. Within 10 years, Wenzhou property investors, most of whom are local businessmen, became famous as they, as a group, went about buying apartments across China. In all, they invested about 200 billion yuan ($30 billion) in China's real estate so far.
Their buying led to a surge in prices, which benefited them when they re-sold, but it also meant that new homes went beyond the reach of average wage-earners by 2010.
That is when the government tightened curbs on the property sector.
That, in turn, led to a collapse of the market as prices crashed, eventually ending the runaway gains of Wenzhou investors.
"Compared to 2009 and 2010 when prices peaked around 80,000 yuan per square meter in certain luxury apartments in Shanghai, the average price now is about 40,000 yuan, which is more reasonable and realistic," said Ding.
Official data show housing prices in Shanghai rose 3.5 percent between February and December 2015, the first period of growth since 2011. The average price of new homes dropped nearly 40 percent from January 2012 to January 2015.
Even in Wenzhou, housing prices, and demand, grew just a bit. "Here, it's different from other cities. There's no obvious surge in housing prices and demand as the locals are no longer keen to make fortunes from speculative investments in property," said Jia Wei, a sales manager at a property agency in Wenzhou.
"The recovery of the property market in Wenzhou will be slow and stable, with no bubbles any more."
