Chinese exports to rebound in second half of 2016: expert
China's December trade data was "above market expectations," easing investor concerns and boosting stock markets' performance in Asia, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs (GAC) on Wednesday.
China's exports in December slumped 1.4 percent from the same period last year to $224 billion, rebounding from a 6.8 percent drop in November.
Imports fell 7.6 percent in December from a year ago, compared with an 8.7 percent drop in November.
Japan's Nikkei index jumped 2.6 percent and futures markets also pointed to a higher opening on Wall Street after the data was released, Reuters reported.
China Merchants Securities said that the latest trade data beat market expectations in a report it sent to the Global Times on Wednesday, while Reuters also reported on Wednesday that China's trade slide in December was "much less than expected."
According to the China Merchants Securities report, the main reason for China's trade rebound with overseas countries in December is an improvement in demand, as their manufacturing sectors have recently warmed up.
The report said that the manufacturing PMI figures in the Eurozone and Australia recovered in December, while Japan's manufacturing PMI hit an 18-month high.
The GAC data shows that China's trade with the EU reached $54.7 billion in December, up from $45.3 billion in the previous month.
Bai Ming, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the yuan's depreciation in recent months has also caused yuan-denominated exports to rise in December.
The yuan's average exchange rate against the US dollar was 6.45 and 6.19 in December 2015 and December 2014, according to previous data.
Yuan exchange rate
The yuan has been depreciating ever since the central bank adopted a more market-oriented central parity system in August, but the Chinese government recently took measures to strengthen the yuan, Reuters reported.
"The central bank wouldn't allow the yuan to plunge just to boost exports," Bai said, adding that the central bank would make the yuan fluctuate in a "reasonable" and "balanced" manner.
According to Bai, the government rolled out a series of measures in 2015 to boost overseas trade, such as expanding China's free trade zones and increasing the level of convenience for overseas trade.
"The effects of some of those measures might have taken root in December," Bai told the Global Times on Wednesday.
Some analysts, however, voiced their concerns despite the positive trade data released on Wednesday.
Luo Yuding, a professor at the College of Business of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the country's December trade data might have been cyclical, such as an increase in overseas demand around the Christmas period.
"China's trade or general economic situation has not shown any compelling signs of improvement so far this year," Luo said.
Rising exports
Huang Songping, GAC spokesperson, said at a press conference on Wednesday that China's overseas trade showed some positivity in 2015. For example, emerging trade patterns such as cross-border e-commerce developed fast in the past year.
According to Huang, 100 million packages worth more than 15.5 billion yuan ($2.36 billion) from overseas countries entered seven cities in China through cross-border e-commerce retail websites as of November 2015.
China's exports to emerging countries also rose in 2015, according to Huang. The GAC data shows that China's exports to India and ASEAN nations rose 7.4 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively, in December 2015.
Bai said China's overseas trade will remain constant in the first half of 2016, but will show signs of a big rebound in the second half of the year, as many projects under the "Belt and Road" initiative will be implemented.
Bai also said that China should implement more measures to boost domestic industries, so that domestic products will enjoy better quality and will become more competitive globally.
