China's GDP growth will recover to 8 percent in the first half of 2013 and accelerate to 8.5 percent in the second half benefiting from corporate and infrastructure investment and a recovery in exports growth, Ma Jun, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Greater China, said on Jan 15.
"Indications of more aggressive economic reforms ahead will be fruitful and we expect an investment-led growth recovery in 2013," said Ma, adding that Deutsche Bank's full-year GDP growth estimate for 2013 remains at 8.2 percent.
Ma said the economic recovery will continue in 2014, and that the GDP growth will likely peak at close to 9 percent.
"The main upside risk in China is higher-than-expected fiscal spending by the government," Ma said.
Deutsche Bank predicted that interest rates may begin to rise by the end of 2013, and that the renminbi appreciation against the US dollar will reach 2.5 percent by the end of the year.
Ma also outlined key structural themes that investors should consider in 2013. For instance, cement, construction, and shipping companies will likely outperform, as 2013's cyclical recovery will be led mainly by investments and exports.
He also said that the power, gas, water and refined oil sectors will be the main beneficiaries of the resource pricing reform.
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