Royal Bank of Scotland expects China's GDP growth to be around 7.6 percent in 2012 and, with a modest recovery, around 8 percent in 2013, the bank's China economist said in a report on Thursday.
This forecast is below the consensus opinion. Quite a number of economists believe the country's GDP growth could still reach 8 percent this year.
"We think export growth will face some headwinds from the subdued global growth outlook for 2013, especially for the European Union, China's largest export market," said Louis Kuijs, China economist with the Royal Bank of Scotland plc.
Domestically, the report expects the shifts in the composition of investment growth described above to continue in the coming quarters, with the impact of strong infrastructure spending growth and increased enthusiasm for the real estate market in part offset by the weakness of corporate investment as profits are unlikely to rebound sharply and spare capacity in several important sectors will take some time to unwind.
"Also, we expect consumption growth to moderate in the coming quarters because we expect wage growth to decelerate, given the weak profit situation and modest growth outlook," Kuijs said.
However, the destocking that has been a drag on growth in 2012 should be less of a drag next year, the report added.
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