The countries bordering the South China Sea surely appreciate that tension stands in the way of regional integration and economic cooperation, to no one's benefit. Both China and the ASEAN countries hope that this page can be turned, so that tranquility can return to the region. Recently, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte appointed former President Fidel Ramos as a special envoy to China for an ice-breaking trip. When I was invited to meet with Mr. Ramos privately in Hong Kong, I clearly sensed the new Philippine administration's willingness to improve relations and re-launch cooperation with China. China and the Philippines are both Asian countries and I believe that as long as there is good faith, it's not beyond our reach to find ways to overcome difficulties and restore a relationship marked by friendship and cooperation.
Whether the South China Sea remains peaceful is, however, to a large extent dependent on how the U.S. and China choose to interact with each other. Specifically, when China's sovereignty and maritime are deemed to conflict with what the U.S. sees as its core national interests, it is vital that the two countries read the situation accurately, be clear about the stakes and find an appropriate angle from which each other's positions can be appreciated.
There's room for both China and the U.S. to manage their relations better. The U.S. lacks experience in dealing with powers that are "neither ally nor foe," while China has never interacted with the world's super power from a position of strength. Both sides are still exploring, and what they say and do will shape each other's opinion and actions. They both need to remain humble, keep learning and avoid simply resorting to old beliefs and behavior.
The South China Sea is too vast to be controlled by any single country. Any attempt to build an exclusive sphere of influence may lead to possible confrontation and even military conflict. The only way forward is to seek coexistence and an overall harmonization of power, interests and rules.
China is the biggest coastal state bordering the South China Sea. It has sovereignty over the Nansha (also known as the Spratly) archipelago and controls several islands and reefs there. It's only fair that China is entitled to legitimate maritime rights and interests in the area. The U.S. should respect these and shouldn't hamper efforts by China and the neighboring countries to seek peaceful ways to address their differences.
In the meantime, China and the U.S. must continue to pursue meaningful dialogue, based on a shared commitment to ensure the maintenance of peace, security and unimpeded access to shipping lanes in the South China Sea. The best way to address their differences on maritime rules is by talking to one another, instead of posturing or dangerously testing each other with their military forces. Now that both have expressed support for peaceful settlement of disputes and the two countries have also restrained their reactions, it can be hoped that China and the U.S. can move towards taking measures to stabilize the situation. And the key is for them to have effective dialogue and prevent miss-judgment when handling specific issues, especially when their interests come into conflict.
China and the U.S. Should Free Themselves from the "Thucydides Trap" Complex
About 2,400 years ago, the Athenian historian Thucydides wrote the great book "History of the Peloponnesian War," offering a powerful account of the rise of Athens and how "the fear that this inspired in Sparta" made war between a rising power and an established power inevitable. In 1980, American writer Herman Wouk first used the concept of the "Thucydides Trap" to warn about potential conflict between the U.S. and the former Soviet Union. In 2012, Harvard Professor Graham Allison conducted quantitative analysis of this historical metaphor, and drew an analogy between the "Thucydides Trap" and the structural difficulties in the China-U.S. relationship. Professor Allison and his team found that in the majority of the 16 cases in human history in which a rising power has confronted a ruling power, the result was war. Only in four cases (including the Cold War), the powers managed to handle their conflict of interests in ways other than war. This research seems to suggest that war is predestined for major countries that are going through power shift.
